Farm size plays a crucial role in shaping food production systems and environmental outcomes. However, its long-term global trends have remained poorly understood.

To address this gap, a research team led by Prof. LIU Lei from the Nanjing Institute of Geography and Limnology of the Chinese Academy of Sciences has reconstructed and analyzed a global farm size dataset spanning 1970 to 2020. The study revealed key historical shifts in farm size and projected future trends, with findings published in Nature Communications on Oct. 17.

The researchers discovered that the global average socio-economic farm size, which is defined as agricultural land area divided by the number of farms, first decreased by 15% from 1970 to 2000, then increased by 14% from 2000 to 2020. Under a moderate future development pathway, it is projected to triple by 2100.

"The main driver of recent and future farm size expansion is rural population decline, which reduces the number of people operating farms and leads to land consolidation," said Prof. LIU, the study's corresponding author.

Regional trends, however, diverge sharply. Europe, North America, and Oceania have seen exponential growth in average farm size over recent decades. In contrast, countries like India and those in Sub-Saharan Africa have experienced a decline, driven by population pressure and specific land policies.

The researchers noted that regional differences in farm size trends reflect structural and institutional conditions, with policy impacts also highlighted. For instance, legislation such as the U.S. Agricultural Adjustment Act has accelerated land consolidation, while India’s Land Ceiling Acts and China’s Household Responsibility System have historically preserved smaller farm structures.

These findings underscore the socio-economic and environmental implications of farm consolidation: while it can boost productivity, it may also reduce rural employment and biodiversity.